| It's a week to the Super Bowl... and for a change, | | | | first, in 1969, not only were they still in Baltimore, |
| people actually care about the game. | | | | they were still in the NFC, too... or rather the NFL, |
| This Super Bowl promises to be one of the more | | | | since the leagues didn't unite until the following year. |
| closely contested ones in recent years-as opposed to | | | | The Colts have spent nine hungry years under |
| the blowouts we've all become accustomed to when | | | | Peyton Manning, repeatedly falling short in the |
| the New England Patriots aren't involved. | | | | playoffs-or not even making them; it's ironic that in |
| For those not keeping track, there have only been | | | | the year they finally made it to the big dance, they |
| five other games since 1980 that were decided by a | | | | did it without future Hall-of-Famer Edgerrin James. |
| touchdown or less: San Francisco's wins in 1982 and | | | | The Bears' presence, on the other hand, came as a |
| 1989, both against Cincinnati; the New York Giants' | | | | surprise to almost everybody: nobody was expecting |
| win when Buffalo made its first of four consecutive | | | | this kind of performance when the season started. |
| trips in 1991; the Denver Broncos' first win, | | | | (Well, I did, having followed their performance closely |
| overcoming the Green Bay Packers in 1998; and the | | | | last year, especially on defense... but nobody else |
| St. Louis Rams' last-second stop of the Tennessee | | | | was listening.) |
| Titans in 2000. All three of the Patriots wins were by | | | | "Defense wins championships," we're often told. If |
| a field goal, as I'm sure we all remember: a total of | | | | true, this game would have been a no-brainer at the |
| eight games in 27 years where the winning margin | | | | end of the regular season: the Bears had it, the Colts |
| was less than 10 points. Since five of the past ten | | | | did not, especially when it came to the running game. |
| Super Bowls fall into the single-score category, | | | | During the playoffs, though, a miracle occurred: the |
| younger fans might not remember what a sleeper | | | | Colts figured out how to stop some of the best RBs |
| the games were from 1982-1997, where, with the | | | | in the league. It's also often overlooked that the |
| exception of the (then) Los Angeles Raiders' win | | | | Colts have had one of the best pass defenses all |
| 1984, the championship was decided at the NFC | | | | along-though part of that might have been due to |
| Conference Championship game: 15 out of 16 wins | | | | the fact that nobody bothered to pass much against |
| for NFC teams, including 13 in a row. The average | | | | them anyway. If the Colts can keep up their run |
| margin of victory during that period was 20.3125 | | | | stopping, though, there's little question but that they |
| points... not what most people would describe as a | | | | can contain the Bears' questionable offense, led by |
| "contest." | | | | streaky QB Rex Grossman and a pair of |
| You can imagine how odd it's sounded to my ears to | | | | just-above-average RBs. |
| hear about "AFC dominance" this year, in light of | | | | Which means that it will come down to whether or |
| having lived through that kind of history. | | | | not Chicago can do the same to Indianapolis' pair of |
| However, the AFC has come back, winning seven | | | | just-above-average RBs and the hottest QB in the |
| out of the past nine. More importantly, the margins | | | | NFL. The run probably won't cause the Bears any |
| have narrowed: the average margin of victory in | | | | problems... it's the pass that will beat them, if anything |
| those games was 11.444 points; take away the | | | | can. Pay special attention to turnovers: both teams |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 27-point stomping of the | | | | will be trying to force them, and the one that wins |
| (once again) Oakland Raiders in 2003, and that margin | | | | this battle will probably win the war. |
| drops to a comfortable 9.5. It appears that "parity" is | | | | Who's going to win? I won't predict that just yet: |
| once again on the radar after all. | | | | watch for it later in the week. I can say this much, |
| This year features what has arguably been the NFL's | | | | though: watch for Indianapolis to smother Chicago's |
| best offense over the past several years-the | | | | offense-or at least try to-and the Bears' defense to |
| Indianapolis Colts-against a defense never to be | | | | do its usual job against the Colts' offense... resulting in |
| taken lightly-the Chicago Bears. This is only the Bears' | | | | a lower-scoring game than most people might have |
| second appearance, the first coming in 1986; it is the | | | | expected. And a closer one than most people might |
| Colts' first trip since way back in 1971, when they | | | | have expected. |
| were still in Baltimore, and their third overall-for their | | | | In other words: it should be a good game to watch. |